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A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion

The pair have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.

Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."